New projects coming online through 2027 are set to lift national output and reinforce Brazil’s position as a global iron ore supplier
Iron ore production in Brazil is expected to grow steadily over the coming years, with Minas Gerais emerging as the central hub of a new expansion cycle. Large-scale projects led by the country’s major mining companies are already boosting output and are expected to significantly increase supply as new operations reach full capacity by 2026 and 2027.
The trend is already visible in the operational performance of leading producers, which are set to close 2025 with higher production volumes compared to previous years.
One of the most significant additions to Brazil’s iron ore supply is Vale’s Capanema mine, located in Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais. Officially inaugurated in September, the new operation adds 15 million tonnes per year to Vale’s production capacity. The mine is currently in ramp-up and is expected to reach full capacity in the first quarter of 2026.
Capanema plays a key role in Vale’s production guidance of 335 to 345 million tonnes in 2026, which includes output from operations in both Minas Gerais and Pará. The company expects to close 2025 with production of around 335 million tonnes, up from 328 million tonnes in 2024, marking its highest level since 2018.
Gerdau is also expanding its footprint in Minas Gerais through a new production platform at the Miguel Burnier mine, in Ouro Preto. The project will raise the mine’s annual capacity to 5.5 million tonnes, with operations scheduled to begin in early 2026. Once ramp-up is complete, the company plans to sell 2.5 million tonnes of iron ore to the market, while the remaining volume will supply its Ouro Branco steel plant.
Looking further ahead, CSN Mineração is developing a new beneficiation plant at its Casa de Pedra complex, in Congonhas. The unit, known as Itabirito P15, is under construction and is expected to start operations in the fourth quarter of 2027, with capacity to produce 16.5 million tonnes per year. The project will significantly increase CSN Mineração’s output, which is projected to reach 42 to 43.5 million tonnes in 2025, including third-party purchases.
Another important development is the gradual resumption of operations at Samarco. The company’s restart plan is structured in three phases, two of which have already been completed. By the end of 2024, Samarco had returned to 60 percent of its installed capacity and has since been steadily increasing production at its Germano complex, in Mariana.
The company aims to reach 100 percent operational capacity by 2028, when the final phase of the project is completed, further strengthening Minas Gerais’ role in national iron ore supply.
Beyond these flagship projects, other producers are also advancing or assessing expansion plans in Minas Gerais. Usiminas Mineração (Musa) and Anglo American are studying future capacity increases, while companies such as Itaminas and AVG are already in the process of expanding their operations.
According to data from the Brazilian Mining Institute (IBRAM), the iron ore segment in Brazil is expected to attract US$19.6 billion in investments between 2025 and 2029. While the figures are not broken down by state, a significant share of this capital is expected to flow to Minas Gerais and Pará, Brazil’s two main iron ore-producing regions.
Looking ahead to 2026, market analysts expect global demand for iron ore to remain relatively stable, with prices for 62 percent-grade material hovering around US$100 per tonne. Under this scenario, Brazilian producers could benefit from solid cash generation, particularly those with large-scale operations and low production costs.
Analysts note, however, that performance is likely to be uneven across the sector. Companies combining scale, cost efficiency, high-quality ore and strong logistics are expected to be better positioned to navigate price volatility and maintain profitability.
As new projects come online and existing operations expand, Minas Gerais is set to play a central role in Brazil’s next phase of iron ore growth, reinforcing the country’s strategic importance in global mineral supply chains.
Source: Diário do Comércio
